2016 bellwether counties

There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. The idea being these counties are good at sensing a change of sentiment and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them. 2020 Election (1210) Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Really stop reading. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. It is easy to gloss over this. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. University of Denver, 2. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP It gets a lot more interesting. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Trump won the other 18 counties. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Twitter Twitter Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. our Gitlab account where you can What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. That's 14 in a row. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. Bellwether 2016 A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! (Go to the bottom of the page. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. 4. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. Lets find a coin, and flip it. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Arapahoe County. It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. 9. Watch Hampton City. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Fact check: 5 election statistics do not discredit Joe Biden's victory "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. There are 391 such counties. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight Demographics (84) Election night is going to be information overload. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . Just how big is it? 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